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Although the new energy bus market data in the first half of the year is not good-looking, the prospect is still considerable.

the new energy commercial vehicle data in this month is poor, and the sales of major old brand commercial vehicle enterprises have decreased year-on-year. As a monk in the vehicle market, I share some personal opinions

according to the monthly data of China's passenger car statistics, the total sales volume of enterprises within the statistical range was 97303, a decrease of 24.02% compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of sections, except for more than 12m and the coexistence of organic and inorganic materials in the current insulation market, the sales volume of other sections decreased. Among them, the sales volume of rice decreased by about 14000 units, or 56%, compared with the same period of the previous year. Both rice and rice decreased by more than 30%, a total of about 9300 units

the sales volume in the second quarter increased month by month, with a growth rate of 12.15% in May and 38.52% in June. In terms of months, the rice segment increases month by month. In June, the sales volume increased to 4961 units. Rice is also a segment where the growth is more common for all kinds of wood, such as plywood, particleboard, medium density fiberboard and other wood panels. The sales volume in June was 3679 units

the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in the month decreased by 112.62% compared with the same period last year. The sales volume was 18324, and the hot 8-meter models last year decreased significantly

it can be seen from the above three tables that the sales of the industry and new energy are not satisfactory. Why does the new energy vigorously promoted by the state show a downward trend? The possible reasons are as follows:

1. The release of the new subsidy policy, energy density, various experimental certificates, experimental videos, etc., basically made all the models that could be sold last year obsolete, and there was no car to sell. Therefore, in the first half of the year, all car companies were busy with the production of sample cars and the declaration of new model announcements. After the declaration announcement, there is also the declaration of the recommended catalogue, and then the declaration of the tax-free catalogue... The declaration of various procedures is stricter than last year, and the issuance of some catalogues is irregular. Therefore, the first half of the year is a preparation period. We have prepared "ammunition" for a big fight in the second half of the year

2. The upsurge of new energy has gradually stabilized. Compared with the new energy boom of 15 and 16 years, new energy began to move towards marketization in 2017. High state subsidies have been substantially reduced. In the past, the subsidy for rice was 300000 yuan/vehicle, but now the maximum subsidy is 90000 yuan. Moreover, the subsidy can only be applied after the operating mileage reaches 30000 km. The capital cost of the enterprise is huge. Enterprises and public transport units are no longer trying to buy cars cheaply. Now they are more concerned about the actual operation. The operation mode of traditional public transport is no longer suitable for the operation of new energy public transport. New modes continue to emerge in the exploration. For example, Nanjing Yangzi public transport adopts the mode of "slow charging and fast compensation" to maximize the operation of pure electric public transport. Shenzhen bus group took the lead in realizing the full electrification of public transport in China

3. The market demand has not been fully opened. Those who are familiar with the new energy industry know that November and December are the sales explosion period every year. Because of the policy, they have to finish the licensing before December 31, and everyone knows the reason. Therefore, some enterprises rush to purchase vehicles in advance of the next year's update. Some enterprises and bus companies that planned to purchase in 2017 are also in a wait-and-see state. The substantial adjustment of policies and changes in the market environment have not fully opened the market demand, and a breakthrough is expected in the second half of the year

btw. In the first half of the year, many analysts took out the certificate data to see the industry trend. Personally, I think it is a little one-sided. The reason is that although the certificate of conformity can not be forged accurately, many enterprises are waiting for the issuance of the principles and characteristics of the cupping tester in the tax-free directory. The production of the vehicle is not tax-free, and the customer will not pick up the vehicle for registration. Therefore, the data in the first half of the year is relatively small, and enterprises are waiting for the issuance of the tax-free directory. The latest batch of tax-free catalogue was released on July 7. It is expected that the following certificate data can well reflect the production status of the enterprise

although the data in the first half of the year is not good, the author is optimistic about the annual sales target, which is expected to exceed the sales of last year and increase slightly. For vehicle enterprises, the financial pressure caused by 30000 kilometers is undoubtedly huge. Recently, the news that the 30000 km standard may be adjusted has given hope to vehicle enterprises. Enterprises can spend more money on R & D investment, market development and other aspects. In the future, the gap of charging piles may reach one million. Although China is a large automobile country, it still has a long way to go from a powerful automobile country, and new energy vehicles are the only way from a large country to a powerful country, There are still many obstacles to go through and overcome in the future

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